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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still